Tired of "guessing" where the stock market will go next? Get our trading models & probability-driven market research.
In the Bull Markets Membership Program, we share with you EXACTLY what trades we're making, EXACTLY what goes into some of our trading models, and member-only market studies to help you outperform in the long run.
Medium-Long Term Model
We show you EXACTLY what goes into this model: its indicators, backtests, and data. That way you can use this model with confidence and fully make it your own.
We also show you EXACTLY how bullish or bearish the Medium-Long Term Model is right now.
The Medium-Long Term Model yields an average of:
14.7% a year when traded with SPY (for investors) 30% a year when traded with SSO (for traders)
*SSO is the S&P 500's 2x leveraged ETF
Short Term Trading Model
Our Short Term Trading Model yields an average of 21% a year. Here are the returns (log scale).
Our Short Term Trading Model's performance is less volatile than the Medium-Long Term Model's performance.
This model is suitable for short term traders. We only reveal the BUY and SELL trades in this model. We don't reveal what goes into this model.
We have multiple trading models because there is no such thing as a Holy Grail in the markets. Each model has its pros and cons. We explain the pros and cons of each model so that members can make an informed decision regarding which model to use.
Ultimately, the model that you want to use is up to you. We will tell you what model we’re using in our own portfolio. Whether or not you want to follow us is your decision.
Our proprietary indices calculate many things, such as the state of macro in the U.S., liquidity in the stock market, long term risk, etc. These indices help predict bear markets, bull markets, recessions, and economic expansions. Here are some examples.
Our Macro Index looks at the state of leading U.S. economic indicators right now. Since the U.S. economy and stock market move in the same direction in the long term, leading economic indicators are also long term leading stock market indicators.
Medium Term Volatility Index
Our Medium Term Volatility Index predicts when the stock market’s volatility will spike.
This coincides with short term declines in the stock market and spikes in VIX.
Long Term Risk Index
Our Long Term Risk Index predicts how close the U.S. stock market is to a major bull market top. This is different from the Medium-Long Term Model.
*Here is a non-updated image of this index.
Recession Probability Index
Our Recession Probability Index predicts the probability that a U.S. recession will begin within the next few months.
*Here is a non-updated image of this index.
Our member-only research provides in-depth quantitative fundamental and technical analysis for the stock market, various sectors, commodities, and currencies.
Some of our market studies are for members-only.
You need to have a proper mindset when investing and trading. You can have the best investment/trading system in the world, and you wouldn’t be able to follow it or improve it over time if you don’t have a proper mindset.
In this part of the Membership Program we teach you the proper mindset you need in order to become a successful investor and trader.
At $347 per year, the Membership Program pays for itself. A mere 4% profit on a $10,000 trade that's recommended by the Membership Program makes up for the cost.
The Membership Program does not auto-renew. At the end of 1 year, we will ask you if you want to renew.
Please email us at firstname.lastname@example.org
"I have been trading for over a decade now and since discovering Troy, I have been constantly impressed with his data/fact driven analysis of the markets. I find his level headed approach helps me to maintain mine. Having met in person I can attest to his genuine zest for the markets, that is to say, he is one of the few people I follow in an industry full of spruikers and snake oil salesmen. Well done Troy - Keep up the good work!"
- Mark Reeve
"The BullMarkets Membership Program helped me simplify my trading system and rethink my investment philosophy by illustrating how measurable, fact-driven analysis can be used to formulate well-designed quantitative models. Understanding the internals of the Medium-Long Term Model, one of the most valuable parts of the Membership Program, provided insight into why the trading system works over the long-term from a fundamental perspective. My learnings from Troy's work has already yielded positive results through improved trading returns and deeper understanding of financial markets. Overall, BullMarkets is one of the best online resources for improving one's investment skills. Both traders and investors, whether beginner or experienced, can benefit from studying Troy's approach."
- Dwyane George, software engineer & Product Manager, USA
"Troy's membership program provides access to a wealth of information and well thought-out, tested strategies... and it's affordable! As someone quite new to the market, and having been thrust into it, I have found Troy's insights to be a tremendous help. His model is now the foundation of my taxable account. I chose his approach because his model made more sense than the popular "buy and hold" (especially as I entered the market at the tail of a long bull run). Having one simple, but tested strategy has relieved me of the stress of managing multiple trades, and the long term nature of the strategy is far better for tax reasons, than the short term trades favored by some. Knowing the strategy is back-tested, seeing the results, being able to check the frequent updates, and knowing there are safeguards have all given me peace of mind. But Troy doesn't leave it there...his calm, methodical observations of available data have kept me from panicking a number of times already."
"I have spent around two years looking for a valuable service to increase the poor yields coming from treasury bonds.
I've tried many of them, often paying for such services. But I also kept note of the outcomes, and found that all of them were underperforming the market. In best cases they performed as much as a simple "buy and hold" strategy on S&P, but with more risk.
Then I have started following "Bull Markets" and have read in Troy's articles my same conclusion: most of the professional trading services underperform the market, and do not worth the money you pay.
It is much better for a trader to follow the market direction, using a leveraged ETF to expand the gains, and trying to step aside to avoid bear markets and big corrections.
This is the straregy designed by Troy: focus on the long term, ignore the noise of news and rumors, let the market do its job. No miracles, no guru's opinion, no "gut feeling", no lucky calls, just data and knowledge originating evidence-based models. This strategy has given back to me confidence and relevant gains, overperforming the market.
So I keep visiting the blog everyday, and I use its models to confirm my trades. But most important model I apply on my investments is the Medium-Long Term Model, which I consider the best trading strategy for my targets of growth in the long term.
- Carlo Seneci, managing director, Italy
"Troy provides original, unbiased, statistically based research on how the stock market actually behaves over time. His approach offers fresh and valuable input to the long-term stocks investor, especially providing confidence in times of market volatility.”
- Johan Holmgren, former banker
"Troy has in-depth knowledge of the market, and consistently offers insightful, data-driven analysis. Unlike many others he is able to focus on the drivers of the market and the economy and separate out the noise. His trading models are comprehensive, backtested, and clearly explained to members. Most importantly — he has an impressive record of making the right calls. I highly recommend the Bullmarkets Membership program for anyone wanting to better their understanding of how financial markets function, and improve their trading performance."
- Charlotte Wilson, fund manager
"True facts over rumors, backtested! After years of jumping from one perma bear advisor to another I found Troy to be most reasonable and efficient in mid long term investing. He truly investigate underlyings. Troy posts are right now almost 1st thing I read in the morning! I love their consistency and compact size. It really help me to filter out "breaking news" that have absolutely no impact on markets. Book is also highly recommended"
- Grzegorz Maczuga, software engineer, Poland
"Being on the membership programme has been a journey with Troy in his development of models to predict the markets. It started with the Long - Medium Term Model which forecasts bear markets and major corrections. The model is explained with great clarity of the fundamentals behind its development. Troy has gone onto post other models predicting the behaviour of the markets on medium and shorter time frames helping investors taper their investments and reduce risk. Troy always explains his thinking behind the models which often challenges conventional analysis. The models are demonstrating their predictive abilities. By receiving weekly and daily updates on their position gives me confidence in remaining on the right side of the market
I would highly recommend the membership programme to anyone like myself who is a novice to stock market analysis and is looking for clear, logical data based analysis by which to make their investment decisions."
- Martin Saker, Town Planner, UK
“I have studied many different financial models to get an edge on the market but never with the simplicity and accuracy of your models. Now with your models I have the confidence to get this edge.
Thanks for the great service."
"I’ve followed Troy’s posts regularly for close to a year and joined the membership program about 3 months ago (in addition to buying his book through Amazon). Having access to the member only studies and getting specifics to his models are easily worth the cost with the annual membership. Whenever I have questions about his content or posts, he always replies within a day or two. That means a lot to me. Furthermore, with the amount of effort he puts into his blog, I truly feel good about doing my part to help him continue his success. It’s easy to get lost in this headline-driven, information-overload, trading/investing world, however, I feel much better letting him continue to paint the macro picture for me based on his interpretation of economic data and trends. With all that said, for a $347/year membership, it’s really a no-brainer. I’m a happy member and will renew without hesitation."
Which model is best for me?
That depends on your trading style and time frame:
How often are the models updated?
The Medium-Long Term Model, Medium Term Volatility Model, and Short Term Trading Model are updated daily at the end of the trading day.
Whenever a model generates a new BUY/SELL signal, we publish it for members-only on the BullMarkets.co website and also send it out to our members through email.
Can any of the models predict a 6-10% "small correction"?
The Medium Term Volatility Model can be used to predict some short-medium term declines in the U.S. stock market with decent accuracy. When Medium Term Volatility is low, the stock market will probably make a short-medium term decline and volatility will rise.
Is there a free trial or monthly option?
We only offer a yearly Membership plan. No refunds are provided and there are no pro-rated unused refunds available. All sales are final - no exceptions. We do not share our valuable models and member-only content for free.
Can the Medium-Long Term Model be used for my retirement portfolio? What should my asset size allocation be?
Yes, you can use the Medium-Long Term Model for your retirement portfolio. But since this is your retirement portfolio, it's a better idea to use less leverage (e.g. trade using $SPY or $SSO instead of $UPRO).
The Membership Program explains the exact components behind the Medium-Long Term Model. You can reduce your position size as the Medium-Long Term Model gets closer and closer to turning long term bearish. You will understand exactly how close the Medium-Long Term Model is to turning long term bearish when you join the Membership Program.
Do you trade individual stocks?
Consistently and accurately predicting individual stocks is very hard. Individual stocks don't always move in the same direction as the overall U.S. stock market (i.e. S&P 500). Hence, it's much easier to trade and predict the direction of the broad U.S. stock market (S&P 500) than it is to trade and predict the direction of individual stocks.